Another important factor is the timing of WHEN bettors actually determine a play. Some people will wait until minutes before game time to capture as much information as possible. For others, this is not practical.
In the previous section, we saw that Smart Money triggers for basketball were most effective when closing lines were at least 1 point different from the opening line. However, we also noted that this is based on the line just before tip-off.
What if we used a “Smart Money” method, say two hours or so before game time, and grabbed a play when there was just a 0.5-point line move (with the Public on the Other Side)? Oftentimes, this would save us at least a half-point in the spread – which can increase a winning percentage by perhaps 2%.
Now, you think: “How often does a line continue to move?” Based on preliminary estimates, a 0.5-point line move DOES often continue and becomes a “final” line move of 1.0 or more (which would trigger a more official “Smart Money Move”). Stay tuned: SportsInsights is looking into ways of improving its database capabilities so that we can say this more definitively.
As you can see, there’s a lot to study. We’re trying to expand our database capabilities to better study the sports marketplace. Please share your thoughts and let us know what ideas you might have to improve our results and research capabilities.
Other Thoughts and Ideas
• Large Number of Bets – games with a relatively larger number of bets are good in several ways. Firstly, it means that the data and indicators (public betting percentage and Smart Money moves) can be better trusted (more data = more proof). Secondly, it typically means that a game is on television or will be followed heavily – meaning more “Joe Public” is watching. Our research shows that SportsInsights techniques perform slightly better in these games.
• Football is a slightly different animal due to lines being near “key numbers.” A “meaningful” line move might often be 0.5 points.
• Analogies can be made to Moneyline sports such as baseball and hockey. That is, Smart Money methods can be applied. You would want a meaningful line move to signal a Smart Money Trigger – but at some point, much of the value would be gone.
We do not guarantee that the trends and biases we’ve found will continue to exist. It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies” recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear or fade over time. Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself. We do not guarantee our data is error-free. However, we’ve tried our best to make sure every score and percentage is correct. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. The information in this article is for entertainment and educational purposes only.
We recommend having accounts at multiple sportsbooks, allowing you to shop for the best sportsbook line, for the best possible number before placing a wager.
For example, consider a scenario where the Orlando Magic are -2 vs. the New York Knicks at CRIS. However, after shopping at different sportsbooks, you notice Sports Interaction has the Magic at -3 vs. the Knicks.
If you like the Magic, you’d want to bet them -2 at CRIS. However, if you like the Knicks, you want to bet them +3 at Sports Interaction.
Our research indications that continually getting an extra 0.5-point to 1.0-point every time you bet will increase your win percentage by 1-3%. That can be the difference between a winning and losing season.
Taking advantage of shaded lines is one of the fundamental strategies we use to increase value by Betting Against the Public.